October 27th Elections will not Provide Solutions

Israelis are heading to the polls on October 27^th but for Canadian policy makers as well as Palestinians, the distinction between whoever gets elected will not make a significant difference to stability or peace. Still, for those hoping for a more democratic Israel and an end to Netanyahu’s reign, Gadi Eisenkot, the head of the more centrist political party Yashar, has a decent chance to form the next government.

The ultimate election results are difficult to predict since on the last day of polling, Netanyahu and Eisenkot are head-to-head, with Eisenkot in a small lead but neither having sufficient votes to form a majority government. With some of the smaller parties hovering around the 3.25 percent cut off, which small parties will become the king makers is a big uncertainty.

These are the first elections in more than three years since Hamas’ October 7^th attack on Israel and what has been labeled by most genocide scholars as genocide in Gaza.  Israel and its public have not moved far beyond the Oct 7^th collective trauma or any accountability. Lack of progress on accountability or on the peace front has made moving forward challenging. The yearlong ceasefire may have stopped some of the most severe atrocities in Gaza, but it has not produced well-being and human security for Palestinians. More than 1,400 Palestinians have been killed since the October 2025 ceasefire came into force and Israeli military controls 2/3 of territory in Gaza.

Neither Netanyahu or Eisenkot support a two-state solution or the end to Israel’s military occupation of Palestine. Continued Israeli occupation of Gaza and the West Bank, alongside settlement expansion and ongoing territorial annexation, makes a sustainable political settlement difficult to imagine. With no meaningful peace process, no credible political horizon, and no agreement on how Israelis and Palestinians can live with human security, dignity and political rights, the hope of change is dim.

For Palestinians within Gaza, the worst-case scenario is status quo. The humanitarian situation remains catastrophic, most of the population is still displaced, with families living in tents or makeshift shelters. Winter weather brings rain, cold and flooding to people who have already lost homes, livelihoods and basic infrastructure. Gaza's economy, educational institutions, health system and physical infrastructure have also been devastated. Rebuilding will take decades and Palestinians continue to be targeted by hovering drones. A ceasefire that leaves the underlying political reality unchanged, is not peace.

The destruction of everything is not a coincidence. Although currently it is Eisenkot who is the hope for change, it was Eisenkot that came up with the strategy of complete destruction of civilian live while Chief of General Staff in Lebanon. The Dahiya doctrine, named after the Dahieh neighborhood of Beirut, recommends a military strategy involving the large-scale or complete destruction of civilian infrastructure, to pressure militants. This has become the ongoing strategy in Gaza and parts of Lebanon. In both Gaza and villages surrounding Israel, IDF has destroyed every aspect of life including Mosques, Churches, farmland, schools, livestock and trees.

Even if Netanyahu finally disappears from office, these elections will not bring significant change the realities. Canada and the rest of the world must realize that indefinite occupation, settlement expansion, recurring war and humanitarian dependency does not constitute a sustainable status quo. Humanitarian assistance, while essential, cannot be the endpoint of international policy. Aid can keep people alive. It cannot resolve the political conditions that produced the crisis. The two-state solution remains the clearest political roadmap: two states, with security arrangements, negotiated borders, recognition of legitimate national aspirations, and internationally guaranteed human security for all civilians.